With 2008 winding down, what better time to peer into the crystal ball to see what's in store for 2009? Here's a look at some of the stories that we expect to generate headlines next year.
The Economy
The subprime mortgage fiasco that spawned the worldwide financial credit crunch has triggered gloomy predictions of a long-lasting global recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research a few weeks ago reported that the United States has been in a recession since December 2007. That can be interpreted, actually, as good news. Since recessions typically last about a year to 18 months, there should be some light soon at the end of the tunnel.
The U.S. government's $700 billion bailout plan for banks and other financial institutions has done little, so far, to ease the credit crunch and half the funds already have been tapped. As the rest of the money is disbursed, balance sheets should stabilize and the conditions should ripen for resumed lending.
Change
The economic meltdown with its nearly daily reports of job layoffs and bankruptcies helped sweep Barack Obama into the White House. Obama campaigned on a theme of change and his message was well-received by a majority of the electorate who had grown weary of eight years of the Bush administration. Obama will be inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2009, as the country's 44th president and the first black to become the nation's commander-in-chief. He will inherit two wars and the worst financial scenario since the Great Depression, not to mention an ailing health care system, the looming threat of terrorism and foreign policy matters that include nuclear-minded Iran, a newly aggressive Russia, erratic North Korea and the volatile Middle East.
Obama already has announced the formation of a top-rate Cabinet, at least on paper, and it's expected that he'll hit the ground running with an economic stimulus package that targets Main St. more than Wall St., as he often likes to say. Since psychology plays a key role in economic activity, there's a good chance that the new Obama administration will embolden investors who will re-enter those markets where some $30 trillion of global stock market value disappeared in 2008.
Elections
Next year will be a busy one at ballot boxes around the world.
Israel on Feb. 10 will hold general elections to the Knesset to replace Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who announced his resignation in July amid a corruption scandal. The election could return the premiership to hardline opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who leads the conservative Likud party.
In Palestine, elections also will be held next year for a new president and lawmakers and the referendums could further deepen the divide between the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
Lebanon also has set parliamentary elections for next May and the results could determine whether the militant group Hezbollah, which receives support from Syria and Iran, will control the country or if a Western-backed coalition can emerge.
In May, elections will be held in India, which is the world's largest democracy with its population of 1 billion people.
Elections also will be held in Indonesia for a new president and vice-president and members of its parliament.
Germany, which is Europe's largest country, will hold federal elections and it's expected that Chancellor Angela Merkel will remain the top candidate of her complex coalition.
The European Union, which represents some 500 million European citizens, will hold elections in June for more than 700 Members of the European Parliament. Ireland also could hold another referendum in 2009 on the reform-minded Lisbon Treaty that would streamline decision-making in the EU.
In Iran, a presidential election will be held in June and could have important foreign policy implications for the United States and the Middle East. The current incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has been a vocal critic of the United States and has maintained a strong anti-Israeli stance.
In Afghanistan, a presidential election is expected to be held in the fall and incumbent President Hamid Karzai has indicated he will run again.
Hotspots
Darfur. Congo. North Korea. Zimbabwe. Middle East. Mexico.
The Darfur region of western Sudan likely will remain a humanitarian catastrophe in 2009. The civil war pitting the Sudanese military and the nefarious Janajaweed militia against ethnic rebel groups has, by most estimates, killed roughly 500,000 people and left 2.5 million homeless since 2003.
In Congo, fighting and rape continue unabated in the eastern part of the country. The fighting in this region has been the world's deadliest conflict since World War II, with some 5.4 million people killed.
In North Korea, totalitarian leader Kim Jong Il, 66, has been ruling the isolated, nuclear-armed country since his father's death in 1994. South Korean and U.S. officials believe Kim suffered a stroke in August and, if he should die next year, the power vacuum there could seriously alter politics on the Korean Peninsula.
Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe, 84, has shown no signs that he's willing to give up power despite worsening humanitarian and economic crises. The United Nations estimated this week that 1,564 people have died in a cholera outbreak, which has spread rapidly because there is no clean water in Zimbabwe and the country's sewage system has collapsed. Zimbabwe suffers from the world's highest inflation rate, which was last estimated at 231 million percent in July. Food, medicine, fuel and cash are scarce in the country that was once an African breadbasket.
There's little doubt that the Middle East will remain a hotspot in 2009. President-elect Obama has said that he wants U.S. troops out of Iraq by mid-2010, but sticking to that timetable depends on the ability of Iraqi security forces to keep the peace. Violence again has flared in the Gaza Strip, with Israel closing out the year with retaliatory airstrikes against the militant group Hamas. It's also likely that Lebanon will again see some political violence, particularly if Syria tries to exert its influence in upcoming parliamentary elections.
In Mexico, more than 6,830 people have been killed in drug-related deaths since the start of 2007, when Mexican President Felipe Calderon declared war on drug traffickers.
Anniversaries
Put the champagne on ice, there are plenty of anniversaries to celebrate in 2009.
Next year marks the 400th anniversary of the first use of the telescope by Galileo Galilei and 2009 in a nod has been declared the year of astronomy.
Next year also is the 200th anniversary of the birth of Charles Darwin and the 150th anniversary of the publication of his groundbreaking work on evolution, "The Origin of Species."
The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) will celebrate its 100th anniversary on Feb. 12, 2009.
Next year also will be the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, the 60th anniversary of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Barbie doll also turns 50.
--Paul Chavez, Clear365 news editor
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